bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ARI 2 – SEA 3
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ARI0000010100231
SEA01000100013111
Team box
ARI·SEA
3
hits
11
0
home runs
2
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
9
151
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-3111
Cole YoungSEA1-4111
Victor RoblesSEA1-1001
Jhonny PeredaSEA2-4000
Ketel MarteARI0-3001
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill KellyARI5.18222
Jonathan Loaisiga (L)ARI0.11010
Bryce MillerSEA5.01016
Luis Castillo (W)SEA5.02123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ARI +3
12345678910
largest lead: SEA 1 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 47%, SEA 53% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
8.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupMariners
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.4
+0.04Power rating+0.09
4.6Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game7.7
0.86Home runs / game1.25
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
31−26Season record30−29
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11247%+12444.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11253%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more37%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SEA
May 30 at SEA
last game
May 30 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
ARI·SEA
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.6
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
31−26
season record
30−29
18−10
home record
16−15
13−16
away record
14−14
L2
streak
W5
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
7.7
0.86
home runs / game
1.25
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.40
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

ARI · SEA · 67 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
May 30at SEASEA 5 − 1
May 29at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 3
Jun 9, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 4
Apr 28, 2024at SEAARI 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 1
Jul 30, 2023at ARISEA 4 − 0
Jul 29, 2023at ARIARI 4 − 3

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
May 30at SEA1 − 5L
May 29at SEA6 − 7L
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W
May 22vs COL2 − 3L
May 21vs COL2 − 1W
May 20vs SF6 − 3W

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L