bayesRatings

Rockies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 9:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final COL 4 – ARI 5
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000201010480
ARI003200005110
Team box
COL·ARI
8
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
8
150
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI3-4212
TJ RumfieldCOL3-4211
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4002
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4101
Troy JohnstonCOL2-3101
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL5.08515
Zac Gallen (W)ARI5.16326
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 3 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, ARI 66% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
ARI by 1.7
Expected score
ARI 5.8 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
10.0
RockiesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+192Our fair odds−192
4.2Expected runs5.8
−0.57Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.5
5.2Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game8.1
0.85Home runs / game0.88
2.9Walks drawn / game3.1
20−32Season record26−24
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair34.2%65.8%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19234%+15938.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−19266%−19165.6%———
SpreadARI by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more50%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.20 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ARI
May 22 at ARI
last game
May 22 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
COL·ARI
−0.57
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.5
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
20−32
season record
26−24
10−15
home record
16−10
10−17
away record
10−14
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.1
0.85
home runs / game
0.88
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.54
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

COL · ARI · 59 days
Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 15, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at COLARI 8 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at ARIARI 13 − 6

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 22at ARI3 − 2W
May 21at ARI1 − 2L
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 22vs COL2 − 3L
May 21vs COL2 − 1W
May 20vs SF6 − 3W
May 19vs SF5 − 3W
May 18vs SF12 − 2W
May 17at COL8 − 6W
May 16at COL2 − 4L
May 15at COL9 − 1W
May 13at TEX5 − 6L
May 12at TEX4 − 7L