bayesRatings

Rockies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final COL 1 – ARI 2
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000000010161
ARI000001001240
Team box
COL·ARI
6
hits
4
0
home runs
0
2
walks
8
6
strikeouts
8
157
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI1-5002
Ketel MarteARI2-4000
Tyler FreemanCOL1-3001
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3100
Willi CastroCOL1-2000
Jake McCarthyCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zach AgnosCOL5.01014
Juan Mejia (L)COL0.21121
Eduardo RodriguezARI7.04014
Paul Sewald (W)ARI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, ARI 67% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
ARI by 1.7
Expected score
ARI 5.9 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
10.2
RockiesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+199Our fair odds−199
4.2Expected runs5.9
−0.58Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game4.6
5.3Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.2
0.88Home runs / game0.92
2.9Walks drawn / game3.0
19−31Season record25−23
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshi36.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19933%+17336.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−19967%−21868.5%———
SpreadARI by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 runs: <1%
← COL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more50%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLZach Agnos RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ARI
May 20 vs TEX
last game
May 20 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
COL·ARI
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.6
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
19−31
season record
25−23
10−15
home record
15−9
9−16
away record
10−14
L2
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.2
0.88
home runs / game
0.92
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.6
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.54
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

COL · ARI · 57 days
Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 15, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at COLARI 8 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at ARIARI 13 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 8, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 20vs TEX4 − 5L
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 20vs SF6 − 3W
May 19vs SF5 − 3W
May 18vs SF12 − 2W
May 17at COL8 − 6W
May 16at COL2 − 4L
May 15at COL9 − 1W
May 13at TEX5 − 6L
May 12at TEX4 − 7L
May 11at TEX1 − 0W
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W