bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ARI 7 – SF 5
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI030001210780
SF101000111591
Team box
ARI·SF
8
hits
9
2
home runs
3
6
walks
3
7
strikeouts
10
150
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Casey SchmittSF2-5112
Ketel MarteARI1-5112
Eric HaaseSF2-3111
Willy AdamesSF2-5211
Adrian Del CastilloARI1-3111
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI6.06226
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.01101
Tyler Mahle (L)SF5.03333

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
ARI +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · ARI 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 51%, SF 49% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
ARI by 0.6
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.0 SF
Expected total
8.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupGiants
−106Our fair odds+106
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.04Power rating−0.08
4.6Runs / game3.6
4.4Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game8.4
0.87Home runs / game0.85
3.0Walks drawn / game2.1
29−24Season record22−32
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10651%−10751.8%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10649%−11653.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.6
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.6 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more41%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 1.74 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 8.62 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
May 25 at SF
last game
May 25 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
ARI·SF
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.6
runs / game
3.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
29−24
season record
22−32
18−10
home record
12−14
11−14
away record
10−18
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.4
0.87
home runs / game
0.85
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.1
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 62 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3
May 18at ARIARI 12 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at ARISF 5 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at SFARI 5 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at SFSF 5 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at SFSF 11 − 5

ARI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W
May 22vs COL2 − 3L
May 21vs COL2 − 1W
May 20vs SF6 − 3W
May 19vs SF5 − 3W
May 18vs SF12 − 2W
May 17at COL8 − 6W
May 16at COL2 − 4L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 25vs ARI2 − 6L
May 24vs CHW8 − 5W
May 23vs CHW10 − 3W
May 22vs CHW4 − 9L
May 20at ARI3 − 6L
May 19at ARI3 − 5L
May 18at ARI2 − 12L
May 17at ATH10 − 1W
May 16at ATH6 − 4W
May 15at ATH2 − 5L