bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Mariners

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 9:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ARI 6 – SEA 7
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ARI00010400106130
SEA10202100017130
Team box
ARI·SEA
13
hits
13
1
home runs
4
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
9
160
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-4423
Julio RodriguezSEA3-5112
Geraldo PerdomoARI3-6311
Gabriel MorenoARI3-5102
Luke RaleySEA2-4111
Jose FernandezARI3-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac GallenARI5.08512
Juan Morillo (L)ARI0.11011
George KirbySEA5.16414
Cooper Criswell (W)SEA1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
ARI +4
12345678910
largest lead: SEA 4 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 48%, SEA 52% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 4.4 ARI
Expected total
8.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupMariners
+108Our fair odds−108
4.4Expected runs4.5
+0.05Power rating+0.08
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.4Allowed / game3.8
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.87Home runs / game1.16
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
31−24Season record28−29
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10848%+11945.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−10852%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more36%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SEA
May 27 at SF
last game
May 27 at ATH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
ARI·SEA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
31−24
season record
28−29
18−10
home record
14−15
13−14
away record
14−14
W5
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.87
home runs / game
1.16
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.40
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

ARI · SEA · 65 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Jun 11, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 3
Jun 9, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 4
Apr 28, 2024at SEAARI 3 − 2
Apr 27, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 1
Jul 30, 2023at ARISEA 4 − 0
Jul 29, 2023at ARIARI 4 − 3
Jul 28, 2023at ARISEA 5 − 2
Sep 12, 2021at SEAARI 5 − 4

ARI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
May 27at SF3 − 2W
May 26at SF7 − 5W
May 25at SF6 − 2W
May 24vs COL9 − 1W
May 23vs COL5 − 4W
May 22vs COL2 − 3L
May 21vs COL2 − 1W
May 20vs SF6 − 3W
May 19vs SF5 − 3W
May 18vs SF12 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W
May 19vs CHW1 − 2L
May 18vs CHW6 − 1W
May 17vs SD3 − 8L