bayesRatings

Marlins at Mets

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIA 7 – NYM 9
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIA00112012007132
NYM4011001002980
Team box
MIA·NYM
13
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
9
146
pitches thrown
156
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Owen CaissieMIA2-5212
MJ MelendezNYM1-1113
Kyle StowersMIA3-5101
A.J. EwingNYM2-4102
Mark VientosNYM1-4111
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max MeyerMIA6.06536
Pete Fairbanks (L)MIA0.11100
Freddy PeraltaNYM4.28415
Austin Warren (W)NYM1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
MIA +4
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 4 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, NYM 52% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.7 – 4.3 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupMets
+108Our fair odds−108
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.08Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game3.8
4.5Allowed / game4.3
8.1Hits / game7.6
0.79Home runs / game0.89
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
26−31Season record23−33
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYM chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10848%−10350.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10852%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 23 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYM
May 27 at TOR
last game
May 27 vs CIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
MIA·NYM
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
3.8
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.3
26−31
season record
23−33
18−15
home record
12−15
8−16
away record
11−18
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
7.6
0.79
home runs / game
0.89
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.65
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

MIA · NYM · 65 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 2−8
May 24at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 23at MIAMIA 4 − 1
May 22at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at MIANYM 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at NYMMIA 11 − 8
Aug 29, 2025at NYMNYM 19 − 9
Aug 28, 2025at NYMMIA 7 − 4

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 27at TOR1 − 2L
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 27vs CIN4 − 2W
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W
May 20at WSH4 − 8L
May 19at WSH6 − 9L
May 18at WSH16 − 7W