bayesRatings

Marlins at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIA 8 – TOR 2
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA100013030890
TOR0000110002100
Team box
MIA·TOR
9
hits
10
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
8
strikeouts
8
157
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ernie ClementTOR2-4111
Kyle StowersMIA2-4102
Owen CaissieMIA2-4002
Javier SanojaMIA2-4202
Nathan LukesTOR3-4000
Yohendrick PinangoTOR1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Janson Junk (W)MIA5.08103
Trey Yesavage (L)TOR6.25526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · MIA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 44%, TOR 56% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
TOR by 0.7
Expected score
TOR 4.8 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+125Our fair odds−125
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game4.0
4.5Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game8.1
0.83Home runs / game0.89
3.3Walks drawn / game3.0
25−29Season record25−28
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12544%+12444.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12556%−14859.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.7
MIAMiami Marlins+0.7our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.7 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more42%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more32%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 10.26 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TOR
May 24 vs NYM
last game
May 24 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
MIA·TOR
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
4.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
25−29
season record
25−28
18−15
home record
15−12
7−14
away record
10−16
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
0.83
home runs / game
0.89
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.69
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

MIA · TOR · 61 days
Miami MarlinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Aug 24, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at MIATOR 7 − 6
Aug 22, 2025at MIATOR 5 − 2
Sep 29, 2024at TORMIA 3 − 1
Sep 28, 2024at TORMIA 8 − 1
Sep 27, 2024at TORMIA 15 − 5
Jun 21, 2023at MIATOR 6 − 3
Jun 20, 2023at MIATOR 2 − 0
Jun 19, 2023at MIAMIA 11 − 0
Jun 23, 2021at MIATOR 3 − 1

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L