bayesRatings

Marlins at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIA 1 – TOR 8
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000010000150
TOR011006008122
Team box
MIA·TOR
5
hits
12
0
home runs
3
3
walks
1
5
strikeouts
6
130
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jesus SanchezTOR2-4114
George SpringerTOR3-4101
Ernie ClementTOR1-4111
Yohendrick PinangoTOR1-4111
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4001
Javier SanojaMIA2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (L)MIA5.210814
Braydon FisherTOR1.01001
Spencer Miles (W)TOR4.13113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +7
MIA +7
123456789
largest lead: TOR 7 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, TOR 55% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
TOR by 0.5
Expected score
TOR 4.8 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.0
MarlinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+120Our fair odds−120
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating+0.06
4.3Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game8.1
0.82Home runs / game0.89
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
26−29Season record25−29
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12045%+10548.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12055%−12655.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.5
MIAMiami Marlins+0.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.5 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more30%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORBraydon Fisher RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 12.27 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TOR
May 25 at TOR
last game
May 25 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
MIA·TOR
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.3
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−29
season record
25−29
18−15
home record
15−13
8−14
away record
10−16
W4
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
0.82
home runs / game
0.89
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.67
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

MIA · TOR · 62 days
Miami MarlinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
May 25at TORMIA 8 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at MIATOR 7 − 6
Aug 22, 2025at MIATOR 5 − 2
Sep 29, 2024at TORMIA 3 − 1
Sep 28, 2024at TORMIA 8 − 1
Sep 27, 2024at TORMIA 15 − 5
Jun 21, 2023at MIATOR 6 − 3
Jun 20, 2023at MIATOR 2 − 0
Jun 19, 2023at MIAMIA 11 − 0

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L
May 16at TB10 − 5W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W