bayesRatings

Marlins at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 12:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIA 1 – TOR 2
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA1000000001110
TOR00001100250
Team box
MIA·TOR
11
hits
5
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
13
131
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Otto LopezMIA4-4001
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-2111
Xavier EdwardsMIA3-3100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-3000
Nathan LukesTOR1-4001
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury PerezMIA4.03009
Andrew Nardi (L)MIA1.11102
Kevin GausmanTOR5.06125
Jeff Hoffman (W)TOR1.12002
Tyler Rogers (S)TOR1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · MIA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, TOR 55% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
TOR by 0.6
Expected score
TOR 4.8 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
9.1
MarlinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+122Our fair odds−122
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.07Power rating+0.07
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game8.2
0.80Home runs / game0.93
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
26−30Season record26−29
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+12245%+12943.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12255%−15460.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.6
MIAMiami Marlins+0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.6 expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more41%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TOR
May 26 at TOR
last game
May 26 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
MIA·TOR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−30
season record
26−29
18−15
home record
16−13
8−15
away record
10−16
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.2
0.80
home runs / game
0.93
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.66
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

MIA · TOR · 63 days
Miami MarlinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
May 26at TORTOR 8 − 1
May 25at TORMIA 8 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at MIATOR 7 − 6
Aug 22, 2025at MIATOR 5 − 2
Sep 29, 2024at TORMIA 3 − 1
Sep 28, 2024at TORMIA 8 − 1
Sep 27, 2024at TORMIA 15 − 5
Jun 21, 2023at MIATOR 6 − 3
Jun 20, 2023at MIATOR 2 − 0

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 26at TOR1 − 8L
May 25at TOR8 − 2W
May 24vs NYM4 − 0W
May 23vs NYM4 − 1W
May 22vs NYM2 − 1W
May 21vs ATL3 − 9L
May 20vs ATL1 − 9L
May 19vs ATL4 − 8L
May 18vs ATL12 − 0W
May 17at TB3 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 26vs MIA8 − 1W
May 25vs MIA2 − 8L
May 24vs PIT1 − 4L
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W