bayesRatings

Mets at Mariners

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final NYM 2 – SEA 3
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM0000110000220
SEA0010001001340
Team box
NYM·SEA
2
hits
4
2
home runs
2
0
walks
1
12
strikeouts
9
143
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM1-3111
Jared YoungNYM1-3111
Josh NaylorSEA1-3111
Colt EmersonSEA1-3111
Cole YoungSEA2-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Austin WarrenNYM1.00000
A.J. Minter (L)NYM0.11001
Emerson HancockSEA6.02207
Gabe Speier (W)SEA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: SEA 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 45%, SEA 55% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
8.2
MetsThe matchupMariners
+122Our fair odds−122
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.03Power rating+0.10
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game3.8
7.6Hits / game7.8
0.97Home runs / game1.27
2.9Walks drawn / game3.6
26−33Season record31−29
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · SEA chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12245%+10548.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12255%−13156.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 16%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more29%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMAustin Warren RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·SEA
May 31 vs MIA
last game
May 31 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
NYM·SEA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.8
26−33
season record
31−29
15−15
home record
17−15
11−18
away record
14−14
W4
streak
W6
5−5
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
7.8
0.97
home runs / game
1.27
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.53
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

NYM · SEA · 68 days
New York MetsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Aug 17, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 3
Aug 16, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
Aug 15, 2025at NYMSEA 11 − 9
Aug 11, 2024at SEASEA 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 0
Aug 9, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 0
Sep 3, 2023at NYMNYM 6 − 3
Sep 2, 2023at NYMSEA 8 − 7
Sep 1, 2023at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 15, 2022at NYMSEA 8 − 7

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
May 31vs MIA10 − 1W
May 30vs MIA6 − 1W
May 29vs MIA9 − 7W
May 27vs CIN4 − 2W
May 26vs CIN2 − 7L
May 25vs CIN2 − 7L
May 24at MIA0 − 4L
May 23at MIA1 − 4L
May 22at MIA1 − 2L
May 21at WSH2 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W
May 24at KC6 − 8L
May 23at KC0 − 5L
May 22at KC2 − 0W
May 20vs CHW5 − 4W