bayesRatings

Tigers at Rays

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final DET 10 – TB 9
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET20401102010141
TB000203040980
Team box
DET·TB
14
hits
8
5
home runs
2
3
walks
8
8
strikeouts
8
186
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET4-5424
Riley GreeneDET3-4113
Kerry CarpenterDET3-5112
Ryan ViladeTB1-3113
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-5211
Junior CamineroTB1-3312
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ty MaddenDET3.13224
Tyler Holton (W)DET1.21001
Will Vest (S)DET1.22102
Griffin Jax (L)TB4.07615

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +6
DET +6
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · DET 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 44%, TB 56% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 3.8 DET
Expected total
8.2
TigersThe matchupRays
+129Our fair odds−129
3.8Expected runs4.4
−0.10Power rating+0.08
3.7Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.8
0.85Home runs / game0.86
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
22−38Season record36−20
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+12944%+13442.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12956%−16862.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.6
DETDetroit Tigers+0.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTy Madden RP · last 1 start: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 2 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TB
May 31 at CHW
last game
May 31 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
DET·TB
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.7
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
22−38
season record
36−20
14−14
home record
21−6
8−24
away record
15−14
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.8
0.85
home runs / game
0.86
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.48
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

DET · TB · 68 days
Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Jul 9, 2025at DETTB 7 − 3
Jul 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at TBDET 9 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at TBTB 14 − 8
Sep 26, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 25, 2024at DETDET 7 − 1
Sep 24, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at TBTB 7 − 5

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W