bayesRatings

Angels at Rays

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final LAA 5 – TB 8
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA0010100305101
TB100000708111
Team box
LAA·TB
10
hits
11
0
home runs
3
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
7
136
pitches thrown
143
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB2-5223
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4111
Vaughn GrissomLAA2-5102
Zach NetoLAA2-4201
Richie PalaciosTB1-3102
Jose SiriLAA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert UrenaLAA6.05135
Ryan Zeferjahn (L)LAA0.13410
Nick Martinez (W)TB7.08205
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: TB 6 · LAA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, TB 60% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
TB by 1.3
Expected score
TB 5.0 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
8.7
AngelsThe matchupRays
+152Our fair odds−152
3.7Expected runs5.0
−0.27Power rating+0.09
4.1Runs / game4.6
5.1Allowed / game4.2
7.5Hits / game8.8
1.16Home runs / game0.81
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
22−35Season record34−19
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TB chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+15240%+13442.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−15260%−16161.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.3
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more47%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TB
May 28 at DET
last game
May 27 at BAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
LAA·TB
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.1
runs / game
4.6
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.2
22−35
season record
34−19
12−16
home record
19−5
10−19
away record
15−14
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.8
1.16
home runs / game
0.81
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.56
errors / game
0.72

Rating Trend

LAA · TB · 65 days
Los Angeles AngelsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Aug 6, 2025at LAATB 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at LAATB 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at TBLAA 11 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 8, 2025at TBLAA 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Apr 17, 2024at TBLAA 5 − 4
Apr 16, 2024at TBTB 7 − 6
Apr 15, 2024at TBLAA 7 − 3

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 28at DET7 − 1W
May 27at DET0 − 4L
May 26at DET10 − 6W
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L