bayesRatings

Rays at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TB 2 – BAL 11
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0000010102100
BAL5010212011160
Team box
TB·BAL
10
hits
16
0
home runs
3
5
walks
2
4
strikeouts
5
136
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-4116
Gunnar HendersonBAL2-4223
Leody TaverasBAL2-4101
Adley RutschmanBAL3-4100
Hunter FeducciaTB3-4000
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven Matz (L)TB3.07622
Trey Gibson (W)BAL5.26141

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +10
TB +10
123456789
largest lead: BAL 10 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 54%, BAL 46% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
TB by 0.9
Expected score
TB 5.1 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.3
RaysThe matchupOrioles
−117Our fair odds+117
5.1Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating−0.11
4.7Runs / game4.4
4.1Allowed / game5.3
8.8Hits / game7.8
0.83Home runs / game1.09
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
34−18Season record25−30
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BAL chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−11754%−12655.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11746%+10149.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.9
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.9our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.9 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more44%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more34%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 8 Kstarted
BALTrey Gibson SP · last 1 start: 4.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BAL
May 26 at BAL
last game
May 26 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
TB·BAL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.7
runs / game
4.4
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.3
34−18
season record
25−30
19−5
home record
16−13
15−13
away record
9−17
L3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.8
0.83
home runs / game
1.09
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.73
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

TB · BAL · 63 days
Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 5−5
May 26at BALBAL 6 − 1
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 26vs TB6 − 1W
May 25vs TB9 − 7W
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L