bayesRatings

Rays at Orioles

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TB 7 – BAL 9
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910111213THE
TB00000101002127124
BAL00000020002149121
Team box
TB·BAL
12
hits
12
2
home runs
1
4
walks
6
10
strikeouts
9
205
pitches thrown
200
4
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB2-4112
Colton CowserBAL1-4212
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-5112
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5101
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-5201
Leody TaverasBAL2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane McClanahanTB5.13023
Jesse Scholtens (L)TB1.14301
Kyle BradishBAL6.05123
Dietrich Enns (W)BAL1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
TB +3
12345678910111213
largest lead: BAL 2 · TB 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 55%, BAL 45% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
TB by 1.0
Expected score
TB 5.2 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.3
RaysThe matchupOrioles
−122Our fair odds+122
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.14Power rating−0.13
4.7Runs / game4.3
3.9Allowed / game5.4
8.7Hits / game7.7
0.82Home runs / game1.09
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
34−16Season record23−30
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BAL chance
Our model fair55.0%45.0%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12255%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+12245%−10350.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.0
TBTampa Bay Rays−1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.0 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more45%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BAL
May 24 at NYY
last game
May 24 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
TB·BAL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.7
runs / game
4.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.4
34−16
season record
23−30
19−5
home record
14−13
15−11
away record
9−17
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.7
0.82
home runs / game
1.09
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.64
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

TB · BAL · 61 days
Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TBTB 11 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W