bayesRatings

Rays at Yankees

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TB 4 – NYY 2
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000040480
NYY0000100102111
Team box
TB·NYY
8
hits
11
0
home runs
1
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
4
146
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin WellsNYY1-3111
Trent GrishamNYY3-5000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4001
Richie PalaciosTB1-3002
Cody BellingerNYY2-4100
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB6.09111
Ian Seymour (W)TB1.22102
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00011
Gerrit ColeNYY6.02032
Tim Hill (L)NYY0.03310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, NYY 54% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 4.2 TB
Expected total
9.0
RaysThe matchupYankees
+119Our fair odds−119
4.2Expected runs4.8
+0.14Power rating+0.25
4.8Runs / game4.9
4.0Allowed / game3.6
8.8Hits / game7.6
0.85Home runs / game1.43
3.4Walks drawn / game4.5
33−15Season record30−21
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYY chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11946%+12444.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−11954%−14859.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYY
May 20 vs BAL
last game
May 21 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
TB·NYY
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.8
runs / game
4.9
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.6
33−15
season record
30−21
19−5
home record
16−8
14−10
away record
14−13
W4
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.6
0.85
home runs / game
1.43
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.5
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.67
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TB · NYY · 58 days
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4
Aug 19, 2025at TBNYY 13 − 3
Jul 31, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 4
Jul 29, 2025at NYYNYY 7 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at NYYTB 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at NYYTB 7 − 5

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 21vs TOR0 − 2L
May 20vs TOR1 − 2L
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L