bayesRatings

Rays at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final TB 1 – BAL 6
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB100000000192
BAL03003000680
Team box
TB·BAL
9
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
9
132
pitches thrown
117
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4213
Jonathan ArandaTB3-4001
Jackson HollidayBAL2-3101
Leody TaverasBAL2-4100
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-4001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Jax (L)TB2.04103
Shane Baz (W)BAL7.07129

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 54%, BAL 46% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
TB by 1.0
Expected score
TB 5.2 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.4
RaysThe matchupOrioles
−120Our fair odds+120
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating−0.12
4.8Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.4
8.8Hits / game7.8
0.84Home runs / game1.09
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
34−17Season record24−30
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · BAL chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−12054%−11653.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+12046%−10751.8%———
SpreadTB by 1.0
TBTampa Bay Rays−1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.0 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← TB wins byBAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more45%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·BAL
May 25 at BAL
last game
May 25 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
TB·BAL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.8
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.4
34−17
season record
24−30
19−5
home record
15−13
15−12
away record
9−17
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.8
0.84
home runs / game
1.09
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.71
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

TB · BAL · 62 days
Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 4−6
May 25at BALBAL 9 − 7
May 20at TBTB 5 − 3
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TBTB 11 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 25vs TB9 − 7W
May 24vs DET1 − 4L
May 24vs DET5 − 3W
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L