bayesRatings

Angels at Rays

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final LAA 2 – TB 5
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA010000100291
TB10200020571
Team box
LAA·TB
9
hits
7
1
home runs
1
0
walks
9
6
strikeouts
6
168
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Logan O'HoppeLAA2-4111
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4211
Taylor WallsTB2-3000
Ben WilliamsonTB1-1001
Junior CamineroTB2-3100
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Kochanowicz (L)LAA2.15341
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.04103
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 40%, TB 60% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
TB by 1.1
Expected score
TB 5.0 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.9
AngelsThe matchupRays
+148Our fair odds−148
3.9Expected runs5.0
−0.25Power rating+0.08
4.3Runs / game4.7
5.1Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.19Home runs / game0.85
3.5Walks drawn / game3.6
23−36Season record35−20
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · TB chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+14840%+17336.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−14860%−20867.6%———
SpreadTB by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more45%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.88 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·TB
May 30 at TB
last game
May 30 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
LAA·TB
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.3
runs / game
4.7
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
23−36
season record
35−20
12−16
home record
20−6
11−20
away record
15−14
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.19
home runs / game
0.85
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.56
errors / game
0.71

Rating Trend

LAA · TB · 67 days
Los Angeles AngelsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
May 30at TBLAA 14 − 3
May 29at TBTB 8 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at LAATB 5 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at LAATB 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at TBLAA 11 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 8, 2025at TBLAA 4 − 3
Apr 18, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Apr 17, 2024at TBLAA 5 − 4

LAA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 30at TB14 − 3W
May 29at TB5 − 8L
May 28at DET7 − 1W
May 27at DET0 − 4L
May 26at DET10 − 6W
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W