bayesRatings

Tigers at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 12:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final DET 7 – TB 2
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET1113000017130
TB110000000240
Team box
DET·TB
13
hits
4
2
home runs
1
1
walks
2
4
strikeouts
6
106
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-4114
Jake RogersDET2-3111
Cedric MullinsTB1-3111
Gleyber TorresDET3-5300
Riley GreeneDET2-4000
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy Melton (W)DET8.04225
Nick Martinez (L)TB4.09611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
DET +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · DET 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 45%, TB 55% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.4
TigersThe matchupRays
+122Our fair odds−122
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.07Power rating+0.06
3.9Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.7
0.95Home runs / game0.86
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
24−38Season record36−22
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+12245%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12255%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 8 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TB
Jun 2 at TB
last game
Jun 2 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
DET·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
24−38
season record
36−22
14−14
home record
21−8
10−24
away record
15−14
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.7
0.95
home runs / game
0.86
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.48
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

DET · TB · 70 days
Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Jun 2at TBDET 8 − 0
Jun 1at TBDET 10 − 9
Jul 9, 2025at DETTB 7 − 3
Jul 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at TBDET 9 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at TBTB 14 − 8
Sep 26, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 25, 2024at DETDET 7 − 1

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 2vs DET0 − 8L
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W