bayesRatings

Tigers at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final DET 8 – TB 0
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET2300021008100
TB000000000050
Team box
DET·TB
10
hits
5
3
home runs
0
4
walks
2
6
strikeouts
10
129
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wenceel PerezDET2-4212
Matt VierlingDET2-4102
Gleyber TorresDET1-4111
Riley GreeneDET1-4111
Zack ShortDET2-3101
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (W)DET5.05026
Enmanuel De Jesus (S)DET4.00004
Steven Matz (L)TB1.26502

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +8
DET +8
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · DET 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 44%, TB 56% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.4
TigersThe matchupRays
+127Our fair odds−127
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.09Power rating+0.08
3.8Runs / game4.8
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.8
0.92Home runs / game0.88
3.8Walks drawn / game3.8
23−38Season record36−21
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TB chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+12744%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12756%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
DETDetroit Tigers+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 20 Kstarted
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TB
Jun 1 at TB
last game
Jun 1 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
DET·TB
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.8
runs / game
4.8
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
23−38
season record
36−21
14−14
home record
21−7
9−24
away record
15−14
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.8
0.92
home runs / game
0.88
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.49
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

DET · TB · 69 days
Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Jun 1at TBDET 10 − 9
Jul 9, 2025at DETTB 7 − 3
Jul 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Jul 7, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at TBDET 9 − 3
Jun 21, 2025at TBTB 8 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at TBTB 14 − 8
Sep 26, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 25, 2024at DETDET 7 − 1
Sep 24, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L
May 22at BAL4 − 7L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 1vs DET9 − 10L
May 31vs LAA5 − 2W
May 30vs LAA3 − 14L
May 29vs LAA8 − 5W
May 27at BAL2 − 11L
May 26at BAL1 − 6L
May 25at BAL7 − 9L
May 24at NYY0 − 2L
May 22at NYY4 − 2W
May 20vs BAL5 − 3W