bayesRatings

Royals at Twins

MLB · Sunday, Jun 7 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final KC 6 – MIN 5
← MLB / Jun 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000140010692
MIN010000004580
Team box
KC·MIN
9
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
15
strikeouts
8
151
pitches thrown
166
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Starling MarteKC1-4113
Josh BellMIN1-4113
Nick LoftinKC2-3001
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4200
Maikel GarciaKC1-4101
Carter JensenKC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Cameron (W)KC6.03007
Lucas Erceg (S)KC0.22000
Connor Prielipp (L)MIN4.14217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
KC +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · KC 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Jun 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.1
RoyalsThe matchupTwins
+101Our fair odds−101
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.13
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game7.9
0.92Home runs / game1.08
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
26−39Season record30−36
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10150%−12154.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10150%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byMIN wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more37%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 9.42 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·MIN
Jun 6 at MIN
last game
Jun 6 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
10th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 65+ games
KC·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
26−39
season record
30−36
15−17
home record
18−17
11−22
away record
12−19
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.9
0.92
home runs / game
1.08
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.38
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

KC · MIN · 74 days
Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 3

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 6at MIN3 − 2W
Jun 5at MIN3 − 5L
Jun 4at MIN8 − 6W
Jun 3at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 2at CIN3 − 4L
Jun 1at CIN9 − 2W
May 31at TEX3 − 6L
May 30at TEX6 − 7L
May 29at TEX1 − 9L
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 6vs KC2 − 3L
Jun 5vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L