bayesRatings

Royals at Reds

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final KC 9 – CIN 2
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC4000211019130
CIN100000001261
Team box
KC·CIN
13
hits
6
3
home runs
1
5
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
146
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lane ThomasKC3-5214
Michael MasseyKC3-5111
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4212
JJ BledayCIN1-4111
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4001
Matt McLainCIN1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luinder Avila (W)KC5.02145
Lyon Richardson (L)CIN1.01422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +8
KC +8
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · KC 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, CIN 54% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.5 – 4.1 KC
Expected total
8.6
RoyalsThe matchupReds
+118Our fair odds−118
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.12Power rating−0.02
3.7Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game7.8
0.90Home runs / game1.24
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
22−37Season record30−28
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11846%+10947.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11854%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCLuinder Avila SP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 15.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted
CINLyon Richardson RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CIN
May 31 at TEX
last game
May 31 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
KC·CIN
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.7
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
22−37
season record
30−28
15−17
home record
15−14
7−20
away record
15−14
L6
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.8
0.90
home runs / game
1.24
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.39
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

KC · CIN · 68 days
Kansas City RoyalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 6−4
May 28, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2
May 27, 2025at KCCIN 7 − 2
May 26, 2025at KCCIN 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2024at CINKC 8 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at CINKC 13 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at CINKC 7 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at KCCIN 7 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at KCCIN 5 − 4
Jun 12, 2023at KCCIN 5 − 4
Jul 7, 2021at KCCIN 5 − 2

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
May 31at TEX3 − 6L
May 30at TEX6 − 7L
May 29at TEX1 − 9L
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W