bayesRatings

Yankees at Royals

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 2:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final NYY 4 – KC 3
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY020000002490
KC010001010350
Team box
NYY·KC
9
hits
5
1
home runs
2
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
5
131
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC1-3211
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-4111
Cody BellingerNYY1-4111
J.C. EscarraNYY3-4000
Anthony VolpeNYY1-3102
Jose CaballeroNYY1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY6.03233
Tim Hill (W)NYY0.20001
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00010
Michael WachaKC7.05225
Lucas Erceg (L)KC1.04200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, KC 45% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.6 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRoyals
−124Our fair odds+124
4.6Expected runs3.6
+0.24Power rating−0.05
4.8Runs / game3.9
3.5Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game7.8
1.42Home runs / game0.91
4.4Walks drawn / game3.4
31−22Season record22−31
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · KC chance
Our model fair55.4%44.6%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12455%−13156.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+12445%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byKC wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 16 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·KC
May 24 vs TB
last game
May 24 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
NYY·KC
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.8
runs / game
3.9
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
31−22
season record
22−31
17−9
home record
15−14
14−13
away record
7−17
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
7.8
1.42
home runs / game
0.91
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.49
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

NYY · KC · 61 days
New York YankeesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 0−10
Apr 19at NYYNYY 7 − 0
Apr 18at NYYNYY 13 − 4
Apr 17at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at KCNYY 1 − 0
Jun 11, 2025at KCNYY 6 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at KCNYY 10 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 14, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 1
Oct 10, 2024at KCNYY 3 − 1post

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 24vs TB2 − 0W
May 22vs TB2 − 4L
May 21vs TOR0 − 2L
May 20vs TOR1 − 2L
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L
May 19vs BOS1 − 7L
May 18vs BOS1 − 3L
May 17at STL2 − 0W
May 16at STL2 − 4L
May 15at STL4 − 5L
May 14at CHW2 − 6L