bayesRatings

Braves at Reds

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final ATL 4 – CIN 6
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100011001472
CIN101111106100
Team box
ATL·CIN
7
hits
10
2
home runs
1
6
walks
3
5
strikeouts
13
143
pitches thrown
143
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-3112
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-3112
JJ BledayCIN2-4002
Jorge MateoATL1-3111
Michael Harris IIATL2-3100
P.J. HigginsCIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Strider (L)ATL5.07328
Nick Lodolo (W)CIN6.25344
Sam Moll (S)CIN0.10010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 3 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 55%, CIN 45% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
ATL by 1.1
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
9.1
BravesThe matchupReds
−120Our fair odds+120
5.1Expected runs4.0
+0.22Power rating−0.03
5.3Runs / game4.4
3.4Allowed / game5.0
8.9Hits / game7.7
1.39Home runs / game1.25
3.1Walks drawn / game3.9
40−19Season record29−28
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair54.6%45.4%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12055%−13156.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+12045%+10548.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.1
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.1 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCIN wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more46%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CIN
May 30 at CIN
last game
May 30 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
ATL·CIN
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.3
runs / game
4.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
40−19
season record
29−28
17−10
home record
14−14
23−9
away record
15−14
W3
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
7.7
1.39
home runs / game
1.25
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.42
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

ATL · CIN · 67 days
Atlanta BravesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 2−8
May 30at CINATL 5 − 2
May 29at CINATL 8 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at CINATL 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jul 31, 2025at CINATL 12 − 11
May 8, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at ATLCIN 4 − 3
May 6, 2025at ATLATL 2 − 1
May 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 0
Sep 19, 2024at CINATL 15 − 3

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 30at CIN5 − 2W
May 29at CIN8 − 3W
May 28at BOS10 − 2W
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L