bayesRatings

Braves at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final ATL 0 – BOS 8
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000000053
BOS000600118151
Team box
ATL·BOS
5
hits
15
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
3
126
pitches thrown
131
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS4-5211
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS3-5102
Marcelo MayerBOS2-4101
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-5002
Jorge MateoATL2-4000
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Elder (L)ATL3.19511
Connelly Early (W)BOS7.04037

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +8
ATL +8
123456789
largest lead: BOS 8 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, BOS 47% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.3
BravesThe matchupRed Sox
−113Our fair odds+113
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.20Power rating+0.02
5.3Runs / game3.8
3.4Allowed / game4.1
8.9Hits / game8.1
1.35Home runs / game0.77
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
37−18Season record22−31
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−10350.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11347%−11653.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byBOS wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BOS
May 26 at BOS
last game
May 26 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
ATL·BOS
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
5.3
runs / game
3.8
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
37−18
season record
22−31
17−10
home record
8−18
20−8
away record
14−13
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.9
hits / game
8.1
1.35
home runs / game
0.77
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.40
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATL · BOS · 63 days
Atlanta BravesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
May 26at BOSATL 7 − 6
May 17at ATLATL 8 − 1
May 16at ATLBOS 3 − 2
May 15at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6
May 16, 2025at BOSATL 4 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L