bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 3:10 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 2 – ATL 1
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000010010261
ATL000000001160
Team box
WSH·ATL
6
hits
6
0
home runs
0
4
walks
3
5
strikeouts
8
145
pitches thrown
138
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-4100
Austin RileyATL2-4000
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-1001
Nasim NunezWSH1-4001
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Eli WhiteATL0-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Foster Griffin (W)WSH6.03016
Orlando Ribalta (S)WSH0.20001
Martin Perez (L)ATL5.25122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · WSH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 40%, ATL 60% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
ATL by 1.3
Expected score
ATL 5.6 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
9.9
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+153Our fair odds−153
4.3Expected runs5.6
−0.15Power rating+0.21
5.4Runs / game5.3
5.7Allowed / game3.4
8.4Hits / game9.0
1.23Home runs / game1.36
3.7Walks drawn / game3.0
26−27Season record36−17
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15340%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−15360%−16161.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.3
WSHWashington Nationals+1.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.3 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more47%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more37%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 8.27 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
May 23 at ATL
last game
May 23 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
5.4
runs / game
5.3
5.7
runs allowed / game
3.4
26−27
season record
36−17
10−16
home record
17−9
16−11
away record
19−8
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
9.0
1.23
home runs / game
1.36
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.92
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 60 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
May 23at ATLWSH 2 − 0
May 22at ATLATL 5 − 4
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5
Sep 17, 2025at WSHATL 9 − 4

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 23at ATL2 − 0W
May 22at ATL4 − 5L
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L