bayesRatings

Nationals at Braves

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final WSH 4 – ATL 5
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
WSH000001010204100
ATL000000200215110
Team box
WSH·ATL
10
hits
11
2
home runs
0
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
8
175
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH2-5113
Curtis MeadWSH2-5111
Mauricio DubonATL3-5001
Chadwick TrompATL2-3102
Austin RileyATL3-3100
Dominic SmithATL1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Richard LoveladyWSH1.01000
Paxton Schultz (L)WSH0.21001
Bryce ElderATL6.05114
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
WSH +3
1234567891011
largest lead: ATL 1 · WSH 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, ATL 61% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
ATL by 1.4
Expected score
ATL 5.7 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
10.0
NationalsThe matchupBraves
+157Our fair odds−157
4.3Expected runs5.7
−0.16Power rating+0.22
5.5Runs / game5.4
5.8Allowed / game3.4
8.4Hits / game9.1
1.20Home runs / game1.41
3.7Walks drawn / game3.0
25−26Season record35−16
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15739%+16637.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−15761%−19966.6%———
SpreadATL by 1.4
WSHWashington Nationals+1.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.4 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more48%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more38%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHRichard Lovelady RP · last 2 starts: 3.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·ATL
May 21 vs NYM
last game
May 21 at MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
WSH·ATL
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
5.5
runs / game
5.4
5.8
runs allowed / game
3.4
25−26
season record
35−16
10−16
home record
16−8
15−10
away record
19−8
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
9.1
1.20
home runs / game
1.41
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.94
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

WSH · ATL · 58 days
Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 8−2
Apr 23at WSHATL 7 − 2
Apr 22at WSHATL 8 − 6
Apr 21at WSHWSH 11 − 4
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5
Sep 17, 2025at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 6 − 3

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 21vs NYM1 − 2L
May 20vs NYM8 − 4W
May 19vs NYM9 − 6W
May 18vs NYM7 − 16L
May 17vs BAL3 − 7L
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W