bayesRatings

Braves at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final ATL 7 – BOS 6
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000023020791
BOS200001102690
Team box
ATL·BOS
9
hits
9
2
home runs
3
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
8
158
pitches thrown
152
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL4-4213
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS2-3113
Matt OlsonATL1-4112
Jarren DuranBOS2-5111
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-5111
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Strider (W)ATL5.03335
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.04201
Ranger Suarez (L)BOS5.06534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · ATL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, BOS 47% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 3.8 BOS
Expected total
8.2
BravesThe matchupRed Sox
−111Our fair odds+111
4.4Expected runs3.8
+0.19Power rating+0.02
5.2Runs / game3.7
3.3Allowed / game4.0
8.9Hits / game8.0
1.33Home runs / game0.73
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
36−18Season record22−30
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11153%−10751.8%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11147%−11653.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byBOS wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 21 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BOS
May 24 vs WSH
last game
May 24 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
ATL·BOS
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
5.2
runs / game
3.7
3.3
runs allowed / game
4.0
36−18
season record
22−30
17−10
home record
8−17
19−8
away record
14−13
L2
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.9
hits / game
8.0
1.33
home runs / game
0.73
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.39
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATL · BOS · 62 days
Atlanta BravesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
May 17at ATLATL 8 − 1
May 16at ATLBOS 3 − 2
May 15at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6
May 16, 2025at BOSATL 4 − 2
Jun 5, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 0

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L