bayesRatings

Braves at Red Sox

MLB · Thursday, May 28 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final ATL 10 – BOS 2
← MLB / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL00020510210110
BOS000200000280
Team box
ATL·BOS
11
hits
8
3
home runs
0
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
11
147
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-5212
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-3114
Michael Harris IIATL2-5211
Jorge MateoATL2-4101
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4101
Matt OlsonATL2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (W)ATL5.06238
Payton TolleBOS4.25227
Danny Coulombe (L)BOS0.01320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +8
ATL +8
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · ATL 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 52%, BOS 48% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.3
BravesThe matchupRed Sox
−109Our fair odds+109
4.4Expected runs3.9
+0.18Power rating+0.03
5.2Runs / game3.9
3.5Allowed / game4.0
8.9Hits / game8.2
1.32Home runs / game0.78
3.0Walks drawn / game3.1
37−19Season record23−31
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10952%−13757.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+10948%+11446.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byBOS wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more29%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 23 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BOS
May 27 at BOS
last game
May 27 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
ATL·BOS
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.2
runs / game
3.9
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
37−19
season record
23−31
17−10
home record
9−18
20−9
away record
14−13
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
8.2
1.32
home runs / game
0.78
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.45
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ATL · BOS · 64 days
Atlanta BravesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
May 27at BOSBOS 8 − 0
May 26at BOSATL 7 − 6
May 17at ATLATL 8 − 1
May 16at ATLBOS 3 − 2
May 15at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L
May 17vs BOS8 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 27vs ATL8 − 0W
May 26vs ATL6 − 7L
May 24vs MIN5 − 6L
May 23vs MIN2 − 4L
May 22vs MIN6 − 8L
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W