bayesRatings

Braves at Reds

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 5:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final ATL 8 – CIN 3
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL1300040008130
CIN0002100003100
Team box
ATL·CIN
13
hits
10
1
home runs
2
4
walks
1
5
strikeouts
11
145
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL3-5003
JJ BledayCIN2-3111
Sal StewartCIN3-4001
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-3111
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-4111
Dominic SmithATL3-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL4.27315
Didier Fuentes (W)ATL1.11001
Chris Paddack (L)CIN5.07430

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · ATL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, CIN 46% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
ATL by 1.0
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupReds
−116Our fair odds+116
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.20Power rating−0.01
5.2Runs / game4.5
3.4Allowed / game4.9
8.9Hits / game7.7
1.35Home runs / game1.24
3.0Walks drawn / game4.0
38−19Season record29−26
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%−13757.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+11646%+11446.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.0
ATLAtlanta Braves−1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.0 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byCIN wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more45%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more35%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 19 Kstarted
CINChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CIN
May 28 at BOS
last game
May 27 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
ATL·CIN
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.2
runs / game
4.5
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
38−19
season record
29−26
17−10
home record
14−12
21−9
away record
15−14
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.9
hits / game
7.7
1.35
home runs / game
1.24
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.44
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATL · CIN · 65 days
Atlanta BravesCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 3−7
Aug 2, 2025at CINATL 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Jul 31, 2025at CINATL 12 − 11
May 8, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 7, 2025at ATLCIN 4 − 3
May 6, 2025at ATLATL 2 − 1
May 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 0
Sep 19, 2024at CINATL 15 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at CINATL 7 − 1
Sep 17, 2024at CINCIN 6 − 5

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 28at BOS10 − 2W
May 27at BOS0 − 8L
May 26at BOS7 − 6W
May 24vs WSH1 − 2L
May 23vs WSH0 − 2L
May 22vs WSH5 − 4W
May 21at MIA9 − 3W
May 20at MIA9 − 1W
May 19at MIA8 − 4W
May 18at MIA0 − 12L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L
May 20at PHI9 − 4W
May 19at PHI4 − 1W
May 18at PHI4 − 5L
May 17at CLE3 − 10L
May 16at CLE4 − 7L