bayesRatings

Royals at Rangers

MLB · Friday, May 29 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final KC 1 – TEX 9
← MLB / May 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000001162
TEX400022019100
Team box
KC·TEX
6
hits
10
0
home runs
3
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
10
152
pitches thrown
142
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4112
Nicky LopezTEX1-4112
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4102
Joc PedersonTEX1-4211
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-3001
Maikel GarciaKC2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Stephen Kolek (L)KC5.06415
MacKenzie Gore (W)TEX6.14013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +9
KC +9
123456789
largest lead: TEX 9 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, TEX 53% · Updated May 29

Expected margin
TEX by 0.6
Expected score
TEX 4.0 – 3.5 KC
Expected total
7.5
RoyalsThe matchupRangers
+113Our fair odds−113
3.5Expected runs4.0
−0.09Power rating−0.02
3.8Runs / game3.8
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game7.6
0.91Home runs / game0.98
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
22−34Season record25−31
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TEX chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11347%+10548.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11353%−12655.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.6
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.6 expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 19%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TEX
May 27 vs NYY
last game
May 28 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
KC·TEX
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.8
runs / game
3.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
22−34
season record
25−31
15−17
home record
12−13
7−17
away record
13−18
L3
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
7.6
0.91
home runs / game
0.98
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.34
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

KC · TEX · 65 days
Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Aug 21, 2025at KCKC 6 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at KCTEX 6 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at KCKC 5 − 2
Aug 18, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at TEXKC 4 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at TEXKC 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2025at TEXKC 6 − 1
Jun 23, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 0
Jun 22, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 0
Jun 21, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 2

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L
May 19vs BOS1 − 7L
May 18vs BOS1 − 3L
May 17at STL2 − 0W

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L