bayesRatings

Astros at Rangers

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final HOU 9 – TEX 0
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU1001205009100
TEX000000000002
Team box
HOU·TEX
10
hits
0
2
home runs
0
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
4
136
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian WalkerHOU1-4113
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3112
Nick AllenHOU2-5102
Christian VazquezHOU2-4101
Jeremy PenaHOU1-2201
Braden ShewmakeHOU1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tatsuya Imai (W)HOU6.00042
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX5.04425

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +9
HOU +9
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · HOU 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 46%, TEX 54% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
TEX by 0.7
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 3.6 HOU
Expected total
7.9
AstrosThe matchupRangers
+115Our fair odds−115
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game3.9
5.2Allowed / game3.8
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.22Home runs / game0.96
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
23−31Season record24−28
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TEX chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11546%+10149.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11554%−12154.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.7
HOUHouston Astros+0.7our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.7 expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 18%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more42%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 12.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TEX
May 24 at CHC
last game
May 24 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
HOU·TEX
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
3.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
23−31
season record
24−28
12−14
home record
11−10
11−17
away record
13−18
W3
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.22
home runs / game
0.96
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.37
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

HOU · TEX · 61 days
Houston AstrosTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
May 17at HOUTEX 8 − 0
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at TEXHOU 11 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at HOUTEX 5 − 1

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 24at CHC8 − 5W
May 23at CHC3 − 0W
May 22at CHC4 − 2W
May 20at MIN1 − 4L
May 19at MIN2 − 1W
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W