bayesRatings

Astros at Rangers

MLB · Thursday, May 28 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final HOU 5 – TEX 1
← MLB / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU302000000561
TEX010000000141
Team box
HOU·TEX
6
hits
4
2
home runs
1
2
walks
3
7
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
119
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3212
Jeremy PenaHOU2-4111
Josh JungTEX2-3111
Cam SmithHOU2-4001
Taylor TrammellHOU1-4101
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (W)HOU6.03113
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX7.04526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · HOU 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, TEX 53% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
TEX by 0.5
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 HOU
Expected total
8.0
AstrosThe matchupRangers
+112Our fair odds−112
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.06Power rating−0.01
4.4Runs / game3.9
5.2Allowed / game3.9
8.3Hits / game7.6
1.30Home runs / game0.98
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
25−32Season record25−30
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+11247%+11945.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11253%−14258.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.5
HOUHouston Astros+0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.5 expected
Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more40%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TEX
May 27 at TEX
last game
May 27 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
HOU·TEX
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.4
runs / game
3.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
25−32
season record
25−30
12−14
home record
12−12
13−18
away record
13−18
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
7.6
1.30
home runs / game
0.98
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.35
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

HOU · TEX · 64 days
Houston AstrosTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
May 27at TEXHOU 4 − 3
May 26at TEXTEX 10 − 7
May 25at TEXHOU 9 − 0
May 17at HOUTEX 8 − 0
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L
May 25at TEX9 − 0W
May 24at CHC8 − 5W
May 23at CHC3 − 0W
May 22at CHC4 − 2W
May 20at MIN1 − 4L
May 19at MIN2 − 1W
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W