bayesRatings

Yankees at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, May 27 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final NYY 7 – KC 0
← MLB / May 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000200320780
KC000000000040
Team box
NYY·KC
8
hits
4
1
home runs
0
4
walks
0
7
strikeouts
10
107
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4212
Ben RiceNYY2-4103
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4101
Maikel GarciaKC2-4000
Salvador PerezKC1-3000
Michael MasseyKC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gerrit Cole (W)NYY6.240010
Noah Cameron (L)KC5.04214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +7
NYY +7
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · NYY 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 57%, KC 43% · Updated May 27

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
8.3
YankeesThe matchupRoyals
−132Our fair odds+132
4.8Expected runs3.6
+0.26Power rating−0.07
5.0Runs / game3.8
3.5Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.49Home runs / game0.93
4.4Walks drawn / game3.4
33−22Season record22−33
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · KC chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13257%−16161.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+13243%+13442.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byKC wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more35%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·KC
May 26 at KC
last game
May 26 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
NYY·KC
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.0
runs / game
3.8
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
33−22
season record
22−33
17−9
home record
15−16
16−13
away record
7−17
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.49
home runs / game
0.93
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.47
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

NYY · KC · 63 days
New York YankeesKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 0−10
May 26at KCNYY 15 − 1
May 25at KCNYY 4 − 3
Apr 19at NYYNYY 7 − 0
Apr 18at NYYNYY 13 − 4
Apr 17at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Jun 12, 2025at KCNYY 1 − 0
Jun 11, 2025at KCNYY 6 − 3
Jun 10, 2025at KCNYY 10 − 2
Apr 16, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 2

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 26at KC15 − 1W
May 25at KC4 − 3W
May 24vs TB2 − 0W
May 22vs TB2 − 4L
May 21vs TOR0 − 2L
May 20vs TOR1 − 2L
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L
May 19vs BOS1 − 7L
May 18vs BOS1 − 3L
May 17at STL2 − 0W
May 16at STL2 − 4L