bayesRatings

Royals at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final KC 3 – TEX 6
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000120380
TEX400200006101
Team box
KC·TEX
8
hits
10
1
home runs
0
4
walks
5
12
strikeouts
8
124
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael MasseyKC2-3212
Josh JungTEX2-4102
Kyle HigashiokaTEX2-4101
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-4102
Lane ThomasKC1-2001
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (L)KC5.08645
Jack Leiter (W)TEX5.230210
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
KC +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 6 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, TEX 54% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
TEX by 0.8
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.4 KC
Expected total
7.6
RoyalsThe matchupRangers
+119Our fair odds−119
3.4Expected runs4.2
−0.11Power rating−0.00
3.8Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game3.9
7.7Hits / game7.7
0.90Home runs / game1.03
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
22−36Season record27−31
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TEX chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11946%−10751.8%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11954%−11653.7%———
SpreadTEX by 0.8
KCKansas City Royals+0.8our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 0.8 expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 19%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 12%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more43%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more31%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TEX
May 30 at TEX
last game
May 30 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
KC·TEX
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
3.8
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
22−36
season record
27−31
15−17
home record
14−13
7−19
away record
13−18
L5
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.7
0.90
home runs / game
1.03
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.40
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

KC · TEX · 67 days
Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
May 30at TEXTEX 7 − 6
May 29at TEXTEX 9 − 1
Aug 21, 2025at KCKC 6 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at KCTEX 6 − 3
Aug 19, 2025at KCKC 5 − 2
Aug 18, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Jun 19, 2025at TEXKC 4 − 1
Jun 18, 2025at TEXKC 6 − 3
Jun 17, 2025at TEXKC 6 − 1
Jun 23, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 0

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
May 30at TEX6 − 7L
May 29at TEX1 − 9L
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W
May 22vs SEA0 − 2L
May 20vs BOS3 − 4L
May 19vs BOS1 − 7L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 30vs KC7 − 6W
May 29vs KC9 − 1W
May 28vs HOU1 − 5L
May 27vs HOU3 − 4L
May 26vs HOU10 − 7W
May 25vs HOU0 − 9L
May 24at LAA1 − 2L
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W