bayesRatings

White Sox at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final CHW 4 – MIN 6
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW003000100480
MIN001410006102
Team box
CHW·MIN
8
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
14
strikeouts
4
138
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tristan GrayMIN2-4202
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4102
Miguel VargasCHW1-4002
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4101
Alex JacksonMIN2-4001
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (L)CHW4.210632
Connor Prielipp (W)MIN6.06427
Yoendrys Gomez (S)MIN1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · CHW 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, MIN 52% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
Expected total
9.5
White SoxThe matchupTwins
+106Our fair odds−106
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating−0.12
4.7Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.38Home runs / game1.07
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
32−28Season record28−33
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10648%−12655.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10652%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIN wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIN
Jun 1 at MIN
last game
Jun 1 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
CHW·MIN
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.7
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
32−28
season record
28−33
20−11
home record
16−14
12−17
away record
12−19
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.38
home runs / game
1.07
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.50
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

CHW · MIN · 69 days
Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 2−8
Jun 1at MINMIN 9 − 6
May 28at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at MINCHW 11 − 8
Sep 3, 2025at MINCHW 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at MINCHW 12 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MINCHW 6 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W
May 24at SF5 − 8L
May 23at SF3 − 10L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W
May 23at BOS4 − 2W