bayesRatings

White Sox at Twins

MLB · Monday, Jun 1 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final CHW 6 – MIN 9
← MLB / Jun 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0010300026110
MIN100440009101
Team box
CHW·MIN
11
hits
10
3
home runs
1
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
6
132
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW3-5224
Tristan GrayMIN1-3115
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-4112
Trevor LarnachMIN2-3101
Tristan PetersCHW2-4000
Sam AntonacciCHW2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Sandlin (L)CHW4.08844
Joe Ryan (W)MIN6.08409

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 5 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Jun 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
Expected total
9.4
White SoxThe matchupTwins
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating−0.13
4.7Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.9
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.36Home runs / game1.07
3.7Walks drawn / game3.5
32−27Season record27−33
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10549%+11945.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10551%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIN wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavid Sandlin SP · last 1 start: 6.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 4 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIN
May 31 vs DET
last game
May 31 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
CHW·MIN
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.7
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
32−27
season record
27−33
20−11
home record
15−14
12−16
away record
12−19
W5
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.36
home runs / game
1.07
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.51
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CHW · MIN · 68 days
Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 1−9
May 28at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at MINCHW 11 − 8
Sep 3, 2025at MINCHW 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at MINCHW 12 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MINCHW 6 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 3

CHW · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W
May 24at SF5 − 8L
May 23at SF3 − 10L
May 22at SF9 − 4W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W
May 23at BOS4 − 2W
May 22at BOS8 − 6W