bayesRatings

Twins at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, May 31 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final MIN 3 – PIT 9
← MLB / May 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000002001361
PIT02205000981
Team box
MIN·PIT
6
hits
8
2
home runs
2
0
walks
5
14
strikeouts
10
165
pitches thrown
113
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN2-4223
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4111
Nick GonzalesPIT1-3212
Henry DavisPIT1-3002
Josh BellMIN2-3000
Brandon LowePIT1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN4.16727
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT6.052011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +9
MIN +9
123456789
largest lead: PIT 9 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, PIT 54% · Updated May 31

Expected margin
PIT by 0.5
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
8.8
TwinsThe matchupPirates
+119Our fair odds−119
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.12Power rating−0.01
4.6Runs / game4.9
4.9Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.8
1.05Home runs / game1.12
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
27−32Season record31−28
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11946%+13442.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11954%−16862.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·PIT
May 30 at PIT
last game
May 30 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
10th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
MIN·PIT
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.6
runs / game
4.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
27−32
season record
31−28
15−14
home record
17−15
12−18
away record
14−13
L4
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.8
1.05
home runs / game
1.12
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.54
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

MIN · PIT · 67 days
Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
May 30at PITPIT 10 − 9
May 29at PITPIT 6 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at MINPIT 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MINMIN 12 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
Jun 9, 2024at PITMIN 11 − 5
Jun 8, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 0
Jun 7, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 0
Aug 20, 2023at MINMIN 2 − 0
Aug 19, 2023at MINPIT 7 − 4

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W
May 23at BOS4 − 2W
May 22at BOS8 − 6W
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 30vs MIN10 − 9W
May 29vs MIN6 − 5W
May 28vs CHC2 − 7L
May 27vs CHC4 − 10L
May 26vs CHC12 − 1W
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W
May 24at TOR4 − 1W
May 23at TOR2 − 5L
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W