bayesRatings

White Sox at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final CHW 8 – MIN 0
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW4000010308120
MIN000000000053
Team box
CHW·MIN
12
hits
5
1
home runs
0
8
walks
1
10
strikeouts
8
116
pitches thrown
187
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-3212
Sam AntonacciCHW4-4201
Jacob GonzalezCHW2-4002
Miguel VargasCHW1-3201
Tristan PetersCHW1-5001
Chase MeidrothCHW1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (W)CHW5.02012
Taj Bradley (L)MIN4.27455

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 48%, MIN 52% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
Expected total
9.6
White SoxThe matchupTwins
+108Our fair odds−108
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.12Power rating−0.11
4.7Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.36Home runs / game1.05
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
32−29Season record29−33
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10848%+12444.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10852%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIN wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 6 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIN
Jun 2 at MIN
last game
Jun 2 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 61+ games
CHW·MIN
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.7
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
32−29
season record
29−33
20−11
home record
17−14
12−18
away record
12−19
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.36
home runs / game
1.05
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.49
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CHW · MIN · 70 days
Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Jun 2at MINMIN 6 − 4
Jun 1at MINMIN 9 − 6
May 28at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 27at CHWCHW 15 − 2
May 26at CHWMIN 5 − 3
May 25at CHWCHW 3 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at MINCHW 11 − 8
Sep 3, 2025at MINCHW 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at MINCHW 12 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MINCHW 6 − 5

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 2at MIN4 − 6L
Jun 1at MIN6 − 9L
May 31vs DET2 − 1W
May 30vs DET7 − 1W
May 29vs DET4 − 3W
May 28vs MIN6 − 2W
May 27vs MIN15 − 2W
May 26vs MIN3 − 5L
May 25vs MIN3 − 1W
May 24at SF5 − 8L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W