bayesRatings

Royals at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 3 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final KC 5 – CIN 2
← MLB / Jun 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC200000003590
CIN000020000281
Team box
KC·CIN
9
hits
8
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
13
strikeouts
11
135
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Blake DunnCIN2-5112
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4112
Nick LoftinKC1-4112
Michael MasseyKC2-4101
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4000
Will BensonCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Stephen KolekKC7.06228
Daniel Lynch IV (W)KC1.01001
Alex Lange (S)KC1.01012
Chase BurnsCIN6.04219
Tony Santillan (L)CIN0.13310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · KC 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, CIN 53% · Updated Jun 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.4 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.6
RoyalsThe matchupReds
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.4
−0.11Power rating−0.03
3.8Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game5.0
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.92Home runs / game1.27
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
23−38Season record31−29
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CIN chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11547%+12943.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds−11553%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CIN
Jun 2 at CIN
last game
Jun 2 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 60+ games
KC·CIN
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.8
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
23−38
season record
31−29
15−17
home record
16−15
8−21
away record
15−14
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.92
home runs / game
1.27
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.38
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

KC · CIN · 70 days
Kansas City RoyalsCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 5−5
Jun 2at CINCIN 4 − 3
Jun 1at CINKC 9 − 2
May 28, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2
May 27, 2025at KCCIN 7 − 2
May 26, 2025at KCCIN 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2024at CINKC 8 − 1
Aug 17, 2024at CINKC 13 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at CINKC 7 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at KCCIN 7 − 4
Jun 13, 2023at KCCIN 5 − 4

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 2at CIN3 − 4L
Jun 1at CIN9 − 2W
May 31at TEX3 − 6L
May 30at TEX6 − 7L
May 29at TEX1 − 9L
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L
May 24vs SEA8 − 6W
May 23vs SEA5 − 0W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 2vs KC4 − 3W
Jun 1vs KC2 − 9L
May 31vs ATL6 − 4W
May 30vs ATL2 − 5L
May 29vs ATL3 − 8L
May 27at NYM2 − 4L
May 26at NYM7 − 2W
May 25at NYM7 − 2W
May 23vs STL7 − 6W
May 23vs STL1 − 8L