bayesRatings

Royals at Twins

MLB · Friday, Jun 5 · 7:15 PM CT · Target Field · Final KC 3 – MIN 5
← MLB / Jun 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC200000001382
MIN001004005100
Team box
KC·MIN
8
hits
10
0
home runs
1
4
walks
0
4
strikeouts
6
108
pitches thrown
130
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN1-4112
Jac CaglianoneKC2-3101
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-3101
Michael MasseyKC2-4000
Josh BellMIN1-4101
Orlando ArciaMIN2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (L)KC5.28402
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN7.05242
Travis Adams (S)MIN1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · KC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Jun 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.2
RoyalsThe matchupTwins
+101Our fair odds−101
4.6Expected runs4.5
−0.08Power rating−0.13
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.7Allowed / game5.0
7.9Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game1.08
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
25−38Season record29−35
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10150%−10350.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10150%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byMIN wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more37%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·MIN
Jun 4 at MIN
last game
Jun 4 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
KC·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
25−38
season record
29−35
15−17
home record
17−16
10−21
away record
12−19
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
1.08
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.37
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

KC · MIN · 72 days
Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at MINKC 2 − 0
Aug 8, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 4

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Jun 4at MIN8 − 6W
Jun 3at CIN5 − 2W
Jun 2at CIN3 − 4L
Jun 1at CIN9 − 2W
May 31at TEX3 − 6L
May 30at TEX6 − 7L
May 29at TEX1 − 9L
May 27vs NYY0 − 7L
May 26vs NYY1 − 15L
May 25vs NYY3 − 4L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 4vs KC6 − 8L
Jun 3vs CHW0 − 8L
Jun 2vs CHW6 − 4W
Jun 1vs CHW9 − 6W
May 31at PIT3 − 9L
May 30at PIT9 − 10L
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W