bayesRatings

Mariners at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final SEA 4 – DET 0
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0121000004100
DET000000000020
Team box
SEA·DET
10
hits
2
1
home runs
0
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
11
140
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA3-4112
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-3102
Jhonny PeredaSEA2-4000
Colt KeithDET1-3000
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3000
Josh NaylorSEA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Miller (W)SEA6.01029
Keider Montero (L)DET5.06411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · SEA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, DET 48% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.2 – 3.9 DET
Expected total
8.1
MarinersThe matchupTigers
−107Our fair odds+107
4.2Expected runs3.9
+0.08Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.0
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.30Home runs / game0.98
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
33−31Season record26−38
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · DET chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi56.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10752%−13156.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers+10748%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byDET wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more27%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 16 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·DET
Jun 5 at DET
last game
Jun 5 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
SEA·DET
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
33−31
season record
26−38
19−16
home record
15−14
14−15
away record
11−24
L2
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.30
home runs / game
0.98
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.42
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SEA · DET · 73 days
Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Jun 5at DETDET 7 − 3
Oct 10, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2post
Oct 8, 2025at DETDET 9 − 3post
Oct 7, 2025at DETSEA 8 − 4post
Oct 5, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2post
Oct 4, 2025at SEADET 3 − 2post
Jul 13, 2025at DETSEA 8 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at DETSEA 15 − 7
Jul 11, 2025at DETSEA 12 − 3
Apr 2, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Jun 5at DET3 − 7L
Jun 3vs NYM1 − 7L
Jun 2vs NYM8 − 3W
Jun 1vs NYM3 − 2W
May 31vs ARI3 − 2W
May 30vs ARI5 − 1W
May 29vs ARI7 − 6W
May 27at ATH9 − 1W
May 26at ATH4 − 1W
May 25at ATH9 − 2W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jun 5vs SEA7 − 3W
Jun 3at TB7 − 2W
Jun 2at TB8 − 0W
Jun 1at TB10 − 9W
May 31at CHW1 − 2L
May 30at CHW1 − 7L
May 29at CHW3 − 4L
May 28vs LAA1 − 7L
May 27vs LAA4 − 0W
May 26vs LAA6 − 10L