bayesRatings

Astros at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Jun 14 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final HOU 0 – KC 4
← MLB / Jun 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000000000051
KC103000004101
Team box
HOU·KC
5
hits
10
0
home runs
0
1
walks
1
5
strikeouts
9
133
pitches thrown
113
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Maikel GarciaKC3-4003
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-4100
Kameron MisnerKC2-3000
Jac CaglianoneKC1-4101
Christian WalkerHOU1-4000
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (L)HOU6.08417
Stephen Kolek (W)KC7.15014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
HOU +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 4 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 50%, KC 50% · Updated Jun 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.2 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.5
AstrosThe matchupRoyals
+101Our fair odds−101
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating−0.09
4.6Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.7
8.2Hits / game8.0
1.33Home runs / game0.90
3.4Walks drawn / game3.5
33−39Season record28−43
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10150%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10150%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
KCKansas City RoyalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more25%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·KC
Jun 13 at KC
last game
Jun 13 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
HOU·KC
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.6
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.7
33−39
season record
28−43
16−19
home record
16−21
17−20
away record
12−22
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.0
1.33
home runs / game
0.90
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.39
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

HOU · KC · 81 days
Houston AstrosKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Jun 13at KCHOU 8 − 7
Jun 12at KCHOU 10 − 8
May 14, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 13, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at HOUKC 7 − 5
Apr 27, 2025at KCHOU 7 − 3
Apr 26, 2025at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 25, 2025at KCKC 2 − 0
Sep 1, 2024at HOUHOU 7 − 2
Aug 31, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 2

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 13at KC8 − 7W
Jun 12at KC10 − 8W
Jun 10at LAA2 − 3L
Jun 9at LAA1 − 10L
Jun 8at LAA5 − 4W
Jun 7vs ATH0 − 5L
Jun 6vs ATH13 − 2W
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 10vs TEX4 − 6L
Jun 9vs TEX5 − 3W
Jun 7at MIN6 − 5W
Jun 6at MIN3 − 2W
Jun 5at MIN3 − 5L
Jun 4at MIN8 − 6W
Jun 3at CIN5 − 2W