bayesRatings

Athletics at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Jun 6 · 3:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATH 2 – HOU 13
← MLB / Jun 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH002000000261
HOU1510600013140
Team box
ATH·HOU
6
hits
14
0
home runs
3
5
walks
5
13
strikeouts
9
180
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU3-5213
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3214
Jose AltuveHOU1-2211
Christian VazquezHOU2-4201
Isaac ParedesHOU2-3101
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kade Morris (L)ATH4.09934
Tatsuya Imai (W)HOU5.05238

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +11
ATH +11
123456789
largest lead: HOU 11 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 47%, HOU 53% · Updated Jun 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.2
AthleticsThe matchupAstros
+111Our fair odds−111
4.4Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game5.1
8.3Hits / game8.2
1.11Home runs / game1.28
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
30−33Season record29−36
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+11147%+10548.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11153%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more39%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more29%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHKade Morris SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·HOU
Jun 5 at HOU
last game
Jun 5 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 63+ games
ATH·HOU
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
30−33
season record
29−36
11−17
home record
15−18
19−16
away record
14−18
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.2
1.11
home runs / game
1.28
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.38
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

ATH · HOU · 73 days
AthleticsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Jun 5at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 5at ATHATH 12 − 10
Apr 4at ATHHOU 11 − 0
Apr 3at ATHATH 11 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at ATHHOU 11 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 0
Sep 23, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at HOUATH 7 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at HOUATH 5 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at HOUATH 15 − 3

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 5at HOU1 − 5L
Jun 4at CHC6 − 7L
Jun 3at CHC5 − 4W
Jun 2at CHC2 − 1W
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 5vs ATH5 − 1W
Jun 4vs PIT1 − 5L
Jun 3vs PIT11 − 9W
Jun 2vs PIT6 − 10L
May 31vs MIL0 − 2L
May 30vs MIL9 − 2W
May 29vs MIL4 − 5L
May 28at TEX5 − 1W
May 27at TEX4 − 3W
May 26at TEX7 − 10L