bayesRatings

Athletics at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 2 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final ATH 2 – CHC 1
← MLB / Jun 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH001100000260
CHC100000000140
Team box
ATH·CHC
6
hits
4
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
8
strikeouts
6
113
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH1-3111
Zack GelofATH1-3001
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4000
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Brent RookerATH1-4100
Tyler SoderstromATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (W)ATH7.03115
Hogan Harris (S)ATH0.10000
Jameson Taillon (L)CHC6.16216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Jun 2

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 4.0 ATH
Expected total
9.0
AthleticsThe matchupCubs
+134Our fair odds−134
4.0Expected runs5.0
−0.09Power rating+0.13
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.8Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.07Home runs / game1.12
3.8Walks drawn / game4.4
28−31Season record32−28
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13443%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13457%−12655.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
ATHAthletics+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 1 start: 5.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 5 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.82 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·CHC
May 31 vs NYY
last game
May 31 at STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 59+ games
ATH·CHC
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
28−31
season record
32−28
11−17
home record
18−11
17−14
away record
14−17
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.07
home runs / game
1.12
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.41
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

ATH · CHC · 69 days
AthleticsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHC 7−2
Apr 2, 2025at ATHCHC 10 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at ATHCHC 7 − 4
Mar 31, 2025at ATHCHC 18 − 3
Sep 18, 2024at CHCATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2024at CHCATH 4 − 3
Sep 16, 2024at CHCCHC 9 − 2
Apr 19, 2023at ATHCHC 12 − 2
Apr 18, 2023at ATHCHC 4 − 0
Apr 17, 2023at ATHCHC 10 − 1

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 31vs NYY8 − 13L
May 30vs NYY6 − 4W
May 29vs NYY2 − 8L
May 27vs SEA1 − 9L
May 26vs SEA1 − 4L
May 25vs SEA2 − 9L
May 24at SD5 − 2W
May 23at SD0 − 2L
May 22at SD3 − 7L
May 21at LAA3 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 31at STL1 − 5L
May 30at STL6 − 1W
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L
May 22vs HOU2 − 4L