bayesRatings

Cubs at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 6:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CHC 6 – STL 1
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0000120126120
STL000100000153
Team box
CHC·STL
12
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
114
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC4-5212
Nico HoernerCHC2-6001
Michael BuschCHC1-4002
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4001
JJ WetherholtSTL3-4100
Ian HappCHC2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ben Brown (W)CHC7.03116
Kyle LeahySTL4.16104
Ryan Fernandez (L)STL1.00021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
CHC +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · CHC 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, STL 48% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupCardinals
−109Our fair odds+109
4.8Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.01
4.8Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game1.15
4.5Walks drawn / game3.3
31−27Season record30−25
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · STL chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10952%−13757.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10948%+10947.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySTL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCBen Brown RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 20 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·STL
May 29 at STL
last game
May 29 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
CHC·STL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.8
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
31−27
season record
30−25
18−11
home record
14−13
13−16
away record
16−12
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
1.15
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.48
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

CHC · STL · 66 days
Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
May 29at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at CHCCHC 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at STLCHC 9 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
Jul 6, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 0
Jul 5, 2025at CHCSTL 8 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 3

CHC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 29at STL5 − 6L
May 28at PIT7 − 2W
May 27at PIT10 − 4W
May 26at PIT1 − 12L
May 25at PIT1 − 2L
May 24vs HOU5 − 8L
May 23vs HOU0 − 3L
May 22vs HOU2 − 4L
May 20vs MIL0 − 5L
May 19vs MIL2 − 5L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 29vs CHC6 − 5W
May 27at MIL1 − 2L
May 26at MIL0 − 6L
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L