bayesRatings

Cardinals at Brewers

MLB · Monday, May 25 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final STL 1 – MIL 5
← MLB / May 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000001000121
MIL300001105110
Team box
STL·MIL
2
hits
11
0
home runs
1
1
walks
4
13
strikeouts
12
160
pitches thrown
117
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian YelichMIL2-4112
Andrew VaughnMIL3-4101
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4001
Luis RengifoMIL2-3000
William ContrerasMIL1-3101
Joey OrtizMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.073210
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL7.021112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 41%, MIL 59% · Updated May 25

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.6 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupBrewers
+145Our fair odds−145
3.6Expected runs5.0
+0.00Power rating+0.31
4.6Runs / game4.9
4.5Allowed / game3.6
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.18Home runs / game0.68
3.5Walks drawn / game4.3
29−22Season record30−20
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshi35.6%68.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14541%+18135.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14559%−21868.5%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 29 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIL
May 23 at CIN
last game
May 24 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
STL·MIL
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
4.6
runs / game
4.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.6
29−22
season record
30−20
13−13
home record
16−11
16−9
away record
14−9
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.18
home runs / game
0.68
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.45
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

STL · MIL · 61 days
St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2
Sep 19, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at MILSTL 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Sep 12, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at MILSTL 8 − 5

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
May 24vs LAD1 − 5L
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W