bayesRatings

Dodgers at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 1:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final LAD 5 – MIL 1
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000140000560
MIL010000000170
Team box
LAD·MIL
6
hits
7
1
home runs
0
6
walks
1
12
strikeouts
7
123
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD1-4112
Kyle TuckerLAD2-5102
Mookie BettsLAD1-5100
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-3100
Dalton RushingLAD1-3000
Jake BauersMIL1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD7.07113
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL4.04347

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · LAD 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 49%, MIL 51% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.2 – 4.1 MIL
Expected total
8.3
DodgersThe matchupBrewers
+105Our fair odds−105
4.2Expected runs4.1
+0.35Power rating+0.33
5.2Runs / game5.0
3.2Allowed / game3.6
8.7Hits / game8.3
1.29Home runs / game0.69
4.2Walks drawn / game4.3
32−20Season record30−19
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+10549%−14859.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10551%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 18%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more38%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more27%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 24 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIL
May 23 at MIL
last game
May 23 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
LAD·MIL
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
5.2
runs / game
5.0
3.2
runs allowed / game
3.6
32−20
season record
30−19
15−10
home record
16−10
17−10
away record
14−9
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.3
1.29
home runs / game
0.69
4.2
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.33
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

LAD · MIL · 60 days
Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
May 23at MILLAD 11 − 3
May 22at MILMIL 5 − 1
Oct 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 16, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 14, 2025at MILLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 13, 2025at MILLAD 2 − 1post
Jul 20, 2025at LADMIL 6 − 5
Jul 19, 2025at LADMIL 8 − 7
Jul 18, 2025at LADMIL 2 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 23at MIL11 − 3W
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L