bayesRatings

Dodgers at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 6:15 PM CT · American Family Field · Final LAD 11 – MIL 3
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD00040003411101
MIL300000000350
Team box
LAD·MIL
10
hits
5
1
home runs
0
11
walks
5
5
strikeouts
11
156
pitches thrown
193
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-4216
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5001
Will SmithLAD1-4101
Santiago EspinalLAD1-4001
Andy PagesLAD1-4201
Brice TurangMIL1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki Sasaki (W)LAD5.04224
Robert Gasser (L)MIL4.14444

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +8
LAD +8
123456789
largest lead: MIL 3 · LAD 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 48%, MIL 52% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.1 – 4.0 LAD
Expected total
8.2
DodgersThe matchupBrewers
+110Our fair odds−110
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.33Power rating+0.36
5.1Runs / game5.0
3.2Allowed / game3.4
8.6Hits / game8.4
1.29Home runs / game0.71
4.1Walks drawn / game4.3
31−20Season record30−18
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+11048%−11653.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11052%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+0.1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more36%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more25%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 9.2 IP, 3.72 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIL
May 22 at MIL
last game
May 22 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
LAD·MIL
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
5.1
runs / game
5.0
3.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
31−20
season record
30−18
15−10
home record
16−9
16−10
away record
14−9
L1
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
8−2
8.6
hits / game
8.4
1.29
home runs / game
0.71
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.31
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

LAD · MIL · 59 days
Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
May 22at MILMIL 5 − 1
Oct 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 16, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 14, 2025at MILLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 13, 2025at MILLAD 2 − 1post
Jul 20, 2025at LADMIL 6 − 5
Jul 19, 2025at LADMIL 8 − 7
Jul 18, 2025at LADMIL 2 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 22at MIL1 − 5L
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W