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Dodgers at Brewers

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final LAD 1 – MIL 5
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000100130
MIL41000000591
Team box
LAD·MIL
3
hits
9
0
home runs
1
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
4
130
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL3-4213
Andrew VaughnMIL2-4101
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3001
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4100
Dalton RushingLAD1-4000
Jake BauersMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (L)LAD5.08524
Logan Henderson (W)MIL5.02037
Chad Patrick (S)MIL1.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 48%, MIL 52% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.2 – 4.2 LAD
Expected total
8.3
DodgersThe matchupBrewers
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.35Power rating+0.34
5.1Runs / game5.0
3.2Allowed / game3.4
8.8Hits / game8.3
1.32Home runs / game0.70
4.0Walks drawn / game4.3
31−19Season record29−18
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+10748%−10751.8%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles DodgersPKour margin————
MILMilwaukee BrewersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more35%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more25%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIL
May 20 at SD
last game
May 20 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
LAD·MIL
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
5.1
runs / game
5.0
3.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
31−19
season record
29−18
15−10
home record
15−9
16−9
away record
14−9
W2
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
8−2
8.8
hits / game
8.3
1.32
home runs / game
0.70
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.32
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

LAD · MIL · 58 days
Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Oct 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 16, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 14, 2025at MILLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 13, 2025at MILLAD 2 − 1post
Jul 20, 2025at LADMIL 6 − 5
Jul 19, 2025at LADMIL 8 − 7
Jul 18, 2025at LADMIL 2 − 0
Jul 9, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 20at SD4 − 0W
May 19at SD5 − 4W
May 18at SD0 − 1L
May 17at LAA10 − 1W
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W