bayesRatings

Cardinals at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final STL 0 – MIL 6
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000000000070
MIL000150006101
Team box
STL·MIL
7
hits
10
0
home runs
2
1
walks
4
5
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4113
Jake BauersMIL2-4111
William ContrerasMIL2-4102
Christian YelichMIL3-5100
Bryan TorresSTL2-4000
Sal FrelickMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (L)STL4.07536
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL6.04002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 41%, MIL 59% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.0 – 3.6 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupBrewers
+146Our fair odds−146
3.6Expected runs5.0
−0.00Power rating+0.31
4.5Runs / game4.9
4.6Allowed / game3.5
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.15Home runs / game0.69
3.5Walks drawn / game4.3
29−23Season record31−20
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+14641%+17336.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14659%−20867.6%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIL
May 25 at MIL
last game
May 25 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
STL·MIL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
4.5
runs / game
4.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.5
29−23
season record
31−20
13−13
home record
17−11
16−10
away record
14−9
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.15
home runs / game
0.69
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.46
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

STL · MIL · 62 days
St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
May 25at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2
Sep 19, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at MILSTL 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Sep 12, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 25at MIL1 − 5L
May 23at CIN6 − 7L
May 23at CIN8 − 1W
May 21vs PIT2 − 6L
May 20vs PIT0 − 7L
May 19vs PIT9 − 6W
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 25vs STL5 − 1W
May 24vs LAD1 − 5L
May 23vs LAD3 − 11L
May 22vs LAD5 − 1W
May 20at CHC5 − 0W
May 19at CHC5 − 2W
May 18at CHC9 − 3W
May 17at MIN4 − 5L
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W